Pete Wargent blogspot

PERSONAL/BUSINESS COACH | PROPERTY BUYER | ANALYST

'Must-read, must-follow, one of the best analysts in Australia' - Stephen Koukoulas, ex-Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

'One of Australia's brightest financial minds, must-follow for accurate & in-depth analysis' - David Scutt, Markets & Economics Editor, Sydney Morning Herald.

'I've been investing 40 years & still learn new concepts from Pete; one of the best commentators...and not just a theorist!' - Michael Yardney, Amazon #1 bestseller.

Friday 29 March 2024

How to predict interest rates, what's going on in the rental market, & why Australia is so resilient

Your Property Success

A few grabs from a cracking recent session I did with Jane Slack-Smith of Your Property Success. 



What's going on in the rental market:


...and why Australia has proven to be so resilient:




Always great to catch up! 

You can follow Jane's work here, on Facebook here and on Twitter here

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 30,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here (next one is due out July 1!). 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Debt to income ratios falling

Debt ratios easing

Housing credit growth to investors fell further to a 9-month low in February, at just 0.21 per cent, as rising land taxes and mortgage rates force more landlords to sell. 

Rental vacancies thus continue to tighten to chronically low levels. 


Overall housing credit growth firmed a little at 4.2 per cent over the year.


Credit growth across the economy was 5 per cent over the year, supported by strong double-digit growth in business credit. 


Double-digit housing price inflation is far ahead of what would otherwise be supported by the credit impulse, due to record population growth, record low rental vacancies, and very low stock for sale levels. 


The household debt to income ratio declined to 1.85x, and net of mortgage offset balances is now unchanged since around 2006.


Interest payments are a different story entirely, having spiked dramatically over the past 18 months, and point to the reason why interest rates will likely by cut over the next 18 to 24 months. 

*I can't find the data for mortgage interest payments; not sure if the series was discontinued or moved elsewhere (?). 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 30,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here (next one is due out July 1!). 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Job vacancies easing back to earth

Job vacancies reverting lower

Job vacancies fell by a further -6.1 per cent (or -23,800 vacancies) over the 3 months to February on a seasonally adjusted basis.

This is certainly a visible trend around the Sunshine Coast - the stores, cafes, and restaurants that were so desperate for staff in 2022 have now resolved their issues...and indeed, many are closing. 


At the state level, South Australia is still experiencing a boomlet in prospective hiring, but the other states and territories are returning to earth,


It's been said that job vacancies are still historically high at 363,800, which is partly true.

However, the figures are backwards looking, and the size of the labour force has absolutely exploded.

In that context, it seems that the 'rogue' unemployment rate figure of 3.7 per cent will wash out in due course, and it's almost certain that unemployment will head up to 4½ per cent and above in due course under the current policy settings. 


In other news, retail turnover increased by a less-than-expected +0.3 per cent last month, which is to say going backwards after accounting for inflation and population growth.


---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 30,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here (next one is due out July 1!). 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Thursday 28 March 2024

Wealth building strategies with Brett Warren

Wealth Retreat 2024

Great to catch up with the trusted source Brett Warren, and Michael Yardney here (or click on the image below):


See you at Gold Coast soon!

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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 30,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here (next one is due out July 1!). 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Wednesday 27 March 2024

Australian Property Podcast: Buying commercial property

Property Podcast

This week on the poddie, Amy and I discussed commercial property: what it is, and how best to invest in it.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


There's also a Youtube version here:


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P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 30,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here (next one is due out July 1!). 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

6-month annualised inflation back to target

Inflation eases further than expected

Inflation came in a little softer than expected for the year to February, at 3.4 per cent.

Excluding volatile items, the monthly inflation reading eased slightly from 4.1 per cent to 3.9 per cent over the year. 


Source: ABS

Of course, a lot of these price increases were over 6 months ago, and over the past 3 to 6 months inflation has been broadly in line with the target, as graphed by Callam Pickering of Indeed. 


Overall, these were somewhat encouraging figures.

James Foster ran through the figures in more detail here.

Tradies shortage

A potential challenge for the inflation figures going forward may prove to be the shortage of housing pushing up rents.

ABS figures released today show public sector spending on engineering construction and related infrastructure continued to soar to over $5 billion in the final quarter of 2023.

Public spending has been higher before, during the global financial crisis nation building stimulus projects...but not by much. 

This latest surge reflects some huge infrastructure and transport projects being pursued in New South Wales and Victoria in particular. 

With mining engineering construction also strong, total engineering construction work is approaching the heady peaks of the resources boomtime years. 


This is naturally good news for the Aussie economy, but is also creating a shortage of available tradies and construction workers for the building of housing, where dwelling supply targets are being consistently thwarted. 

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 30,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here (next one is due out July 1!). 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

State governments fuel land tax fire

Cash grab!

It would take far too long to post too many details here, but it seems that it's not only Victoria that's going in for wild increases in land taxes as part of a state government tax grab.

Updates this week from Queensland suggest land value increases of up to 60 per cent or more, with plenty of property owners now reporting a doubling in unimproved land valuations in only a few years. 



It's been on this trend for the past four years since the beginning of the pandemic. 



New South Wales also seems to be making up for lost time in this regard. 


State governments appear to be attempting to claw back some of the phenomenal waste of recent years through ratcheting up land taxes and rates. 

This isn't that surprising in itself, but it's also going to be manifested in fewer private landlords and more large rent increases to cover the shortfall. 

Other implications? 

Presumably we will see relatively fewer private landlords owning detached homes, creating a rental shortage for family-friendly rentals.

And we may also see more investors choosing to buy units, pushing up entry prices there.

But, in this market - with rental vacancies already at record lows - mainly it will mean higher rents.

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 30,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here (next one is due out July 1!). 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.

Tuesday 26 March 2024

Push is on for normalised lending

Time for risk on

A brief snapshot of a few of the lead articles today from the Australian Financial Review...



A fairly conclusive message from a range of different sources. 

It looks like a somewhat co-ordinated push to let banks lend again without needing to run extremely stringent stress tests for approximately 10 per cent mortgage rates which clearly aren't going to eventuate. 

The UK scrapped its equivalent buffer long ago, now requiring a minimum 1 percentage point buffer, while factoring in rising power prices.

Yet in Australia we're still stuck with an unprecedented 3 percentage point buffers. 


Time to get back to normal!

---

P.S. Whenever you’re ready…here are 5 ways I can help you manage your own money and go next level wealth:

  1. Boom or Bust – 20 minute online workshop for investors

Register for my next free online training - Boom or Bust? How to change your investment plan - book in here

You also download a free copy of my e-book The Only 6 Ways to Become Wealthy here.

    2. Download our property buying guide

Download our free property buying guide here

You can also check out a few of our recent property investment purchases here

Get in contact with us today if strategic property investment is your thing. 

    3. Subscribe to our Top 10 Podcasts for Investors

Listen in to our podcasts

The Australian Property Podcast is rapidly becoming one of Australia's biggest business podcasts, now with over 30,000 unique listeners per month.

And our popular Low Rates High Returns Show also remains available on Spotify.

    4. Subscribe for my free daily blog

Subscribe for my free daily blog with well over 3.5 million hits here

You can also catch up with me daily on Twitter here, where I'm active daily and have over 13,900 followers. 

By the way, I'm a 7-times published author on finance and investing, so you can check out some of my books here (next one is due out July 1!). 

5. Work with me privately

For a limited time you can book in a free diagnosis call with me here, so book in a call today.